In this training, FBA Wizard team member Gary discusses the “3 levels of unpredictability”, the common patterns you will see when doing online arbitrage… and how Amazon’s presence on a listing can affect buying decisions when doing FBA.
So let’s start with level one. We’re gonna use the Keepa graph again today, we’re not gonna be talking about sales rank. So I’m just gonna clear that off, we’re not talking about sales rank. We’re talking today about Amazon and the levels of unpredictability with amazon being on these listings.
We’ll start with this one. If we go to the graph, let’s go to all. So we can see Amazon. So there’s Amazon in yellow up until November. After November, no sign of Amazon. So we’re doing it 3 month for you. Amazon is not on this listing at all. We can check the sidebar. And they’re not there. Not in the buy box. So, we can see, we know they have been on it. In the passbook, currently, they’re not in it. What are the advantages of Amazon? It’s more predictable. So predictable falls in respect that we can see how many sellers run it. We can check quantities of how many people have got in stock. We can monitor price, history, and, we’ve got more chance in getting into the buy box. So a lot more pluses, regarding that side of it.
Let’s take a look at level two. So level two is Amazon out of stock frequently. So we’ll look at the graph, and here on, we can see, the Amazon again in yellow. We can see the spaces where Amazon’s out of stock. And we bring that right up to date, we can see even today, there’s been stock until sort of midmorning then we’ve gone out of stock. We can also check on here how long they’ve been stock for each week. We go about there to Friday. It’s just over a day. Same again here, we can check. So we can see off the graph that Amazon are in and out of stock. We can check the sidebar to make sure that Amazon aren’t set there because sometimes they do. They can still be set here when they’re not in stock. So it’s always worth checking. Check the listing as well. That they’re out of stock.
So, what are advantages? This is what we call, fairly predictable. So the advantages when Amazon is out of stock. We’re back to level one to it. It’s a bit more predictable in the spaces. We can see here on the purple that the prices go up when Amazon aren’t in stock. Not in the beginning. But seen here, when Amazon have started to achieve, here’s the prices. We can see a bit more predictable on what exactly’s happening with the listing.
So let’s have a look at level three. This is a graph on level three. This is Amazon being on the listing all the time. If we actually go here, we can see 265 days in the listing. And 265 days, it’s all in orange. So Amazon are pretty much always on this listing. And we can see there also in the buy box. So the negatives of Amazon being on the listing all the time.
Well, let’s just have a look here and look at the FBA sellers. Here, so this is a perfect example. There’s all the FBA sellers. Pretty much the same price. All stuck behind Amazon’s price. And what are they waiting? They’re waiting for Amazon to go out of stock? Or for Amazon to change their price? So, what solution? Well, from Amazon’s putting it in view, they can drive the price down. We can see that here. They reduce the price. They can refuse to share or give up the buy box, which they do frequently.
On this particular example that I’m sharing you, we actually picked up half or just some of this from the local supermarket. 7-pound 50. And as you can see, there’s 6-pound 89 there. And I’m not exactly on the figure but we just went down a little bit more until actually got the buy box and Amazon did give us the buy box. So sometimes they do, but well looking at it, very unpredictable. Level three, we call unpredictable. Well, I wanna share one more example.
This particular one. I know it’s a lot more money. This is what we call “wiggle room”. If we go back here, we can see the 74-pound 40. This was an Amazon to Amazon flip.
So we bought this from Amazon at 74.40. Amazon’s price there, you can see before it was 158 and after it’s 156, our price was 147. So it was only 10-pound less but if you look here, you can see that there was a lot of profit so, I have use that example. But even on some of the things like this, still make sure that you’ve got, wiggle room.
Because if you haven’t got wiggle room and Amazon are on the listing, it’s either “luck” or a “long wait in time” or Amazon just do, what Amazon sometimes do, and we’re actually giving it to you. We don’t want our business on luck on long wait. So the three levels of unpredictability is, you know, something for you to look at. It’s about setting expectations and going into things with your eyes wide open.
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